1st Behavioral Macroeconomics


New Approaches to Macro-Financial Instability and Inequality

June 15th-16th, 2018

Program (CEST Time)
Day 1: Friday June 15, 2018

Session A1 – Inequality and Macroeconomic Activity (Chair: Christian Proaño, Universität Bamberg)

09:00 – 09:35 Persistent wage inequality as another worker discipline device
Jaylson Jair da Silveira, Gilberto Tadeu Lima (University of São Paulo)
09:35 – 10:10Inequality and finance in a rent economy 
Alberto Botta, Eugenio Caverzasi, Alberto Russo (Università Politecnica delle Marche), Mauro Gallegati, Joseph Stiglitz
10:10 – 10:45Understanding inequality as a business cycle phenomenon: Evidence from U.S. survey data
Martin Geiger, Eric Mayer (Julius-Maximilians-Universität Würzburg), Johann Scharler

Session A2 – Agent-Based Models (Chair: Sven Schreiber, Freie Universität Berlin & IMK Düsseldorf)

09:00 – 09:35 Modeling procedural rationality, power relations, and stock-flow consistency: A general constrained dynamics approach
Erhard Glötzl, Oliver Richters (Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg)
09:35 – 10:10Monetary policy and prudential regulation in a hybrid AB-SFC model with heterogeneous expectations
Severin Reissl (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore & Universität Bielefeld)
10:10 – 10:45 ABM: Macro and micro prudential policies: Sweet and lowdown in a credit network agent-based model
Federico Giri, Mauro Gallegati, Ermanno Catullo (Università Politecnica delle Marche)

Session B1 – Financial Instability and Income Distribution (Chair: Mishael Milakovic, University of Bamberg)

11:00 – 11:35 Decomposing financial (in)stability in emerging economies
Etienne Lepers, Antonio Sánchez Serrano (European System Risk Board)
11:35 – 12:10Intersectoral systemic risk: Evidence from Morocco
Firano Zakaria (University Mohammed 5 Rabat), Filali Fatine
12:10 – 12:45The redistributive impacts of ECB’s unconventional monetary policies: Evidence from Italian households surveys
Mehdi El Herradi (University of Lille & Bordeaux University)

Session B2 – Expectations and Learning in Macroeconomics (Chair: Tomasz Makarewicz, University of Bamberg)

11:00 – 11:35 Endogenously (Non-)Ricardian Beliefs
William Branch, Emanuel Gasteiger (Freie Universität Berlin)
11:35 – 12:10 Endogenous participation, risk, and learning in the stock market
Michael Shin (University of California, Irvine)
12:10 – 12:45Monetary and fiscal policy in expectation driven liquidity traps
Joep Lustenhouwer (Universität Bamberg)

Session C1 – Bounded Rationality and Financial Markets (Chair: Frank Westerhoff, Universität Bamberg)

14:15 – 14:50Ambiguous leverage cycles
Marzio Bassanin (LUISS Guido Carli & European Central Bank), Ester Faia, Valeria Patella
14:50 – 15:25 The consumption response to capital gains: Evidence from mutual fund liquidations
Steffen Meyer (Leibniz Universität Hannover), Michaela Pagel, Alessandro Previtero
15:25 – 16:00On the evolutionary fitness of rationality
Gregor Boehl (Goethe Universität Frankfurt)
16:00 – 16:35Different compositions of animal spirits and their impact on macroeconomic stability
Reiner Franke (Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel), Frank Westerhoff

Session C2 – Behavioral Macroeconomics (Chair: Emanuel Gasteiger, TU Wien)

15:15 – 14:50 A business cycle model with neuroeconomic foundations
Baptiste Massenot (Goethe Universität Frankfurt and SAFE)
15:50 – 15:25 Estimating behavioral learning equilibria in DSGE models
Cars Hommes, Kostas Mavromatis, Tolga Ozden (Universiteit van Amsterdam)
15:25 – 16:00Price level versus inflation targeting under heterogenous expectations: A laboratory experiment
Cars Hommes, Tomasz Makarewicz (Universität Bamberg)
16:00 – 16:35 Reshaping inflation expectations at the zero lower bound
Jasmina Arifovic, Alex Grimaud (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuoro and Universiteit van Amsterdam), Isabelle Salle, Gauthier Vermandel
17:00 – 18:30 Keynote Lecture by Thomas Lux: “The Dynamics of the Interbank Market: Statistical Stylized Facts and Agent-Based Models”
Day 2: Saturday June 16, 2018

Session D1 – Macroeconomic Experiments (Isabelle Salle, Bank of Canada)

09:00 – 09:35 Buffer stock saving: Experimental evidence
Sebastian Gechert, Jan Siebert (Universität Duisburg-Essen)
09:35 – 10:10Why labor supply is a substitute for saving and whether this explains precautionary behaviour
Andreas Orland (Universität Potsdam), Davud Rostam-Afschar
10:10 – 10:45Cold turkey vs gradualism- inflation inertia and level-k thinking in a laboratory experiment
Marcus Giamattei (Universität Passau)

Session D2 – Macroprudential Policies (Chair: Christian R. Proaño, Universität Bamberg)

09:00 – 09:35 Credit booms, macroprudential policy and financial crises
Peter Karlström (University of Bologna)
09:35 – 10:10LTV vs DTI constraints: When did they bind, and how do they interact?
Marcus Mølbak Ingholt (University of Copenhagen)
10:10 – 10:45Learning about banks’ net worth and the slow recovery after the Financial Crisis
Josef Hollmayr (Deutsche Bundesbank), Michael Kühl

Session E1: Expectations Formation and Networks (Chair: Joep Lustenhouwer, Universität Bamberg)

11:00 – 11:35 Heads we both win, tails you lose: The effect of limited liability on financial investment beliefs
Steffen Ahrens (Technische Universität Berlin), Ciril Bosch-Rosa
11:35 – 12:10Asset pricing dynamics under expectations diffusion: The effect of social influence, homophily and stubborn agents
Alessandro Basurto (Universität Bielefeld & University of Amsterdam), Herbert Dawid
12:10 – 12:45Expectations and uncertainty: A common-source infection model for selected European countries
Luca Gerotto (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice), Antonio Paradiso

Session E2: Housing and Stock Market (Chair: Frank Westerhoff, Universität Bamberg)

11:00 – 11:35Regional house price and mortgage default cycles, phase-synchronisation and the destabilisation of US housing and finance
Bazil Sansom (University of Kingston, London)
11:35 – 12:10Homeownership, politics and housing bubbles
Tommaso Oliviero, Marco Pagano, Marco M. Sorge (University of Salerno, Universität Göttingen & CSEF)
12:10 – 12:45 Exchange-traded funds, investment strategies, and financial stability
Michael Heinrich Baumann (Universität Bayreuth), Michaela Baumann, Bernhard Herz
13:45 – 15:15Keynote Lecture by William Branch: “Restricted Perceptions”

Time allocation: 25 minutes for paper presentations, 5 minutes for discussants, 10 minutes for general discussion.

Scientific Committee

Emanuel Gasteiger

Mishael Milakovic

Frank Westerhoff

Cars Hommes

Christian R. Proaño

Joep Lustenhouwer

Sven Schreiber